LED lighting or will crack the price bottleneck

As an emerging industry for energy conservation and environmental protection, LED lighting has recently been issued by the State Council and issued a comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” that has received much attention from the government. The program clearly pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate energy-saving renovation of facilities, strictly manage energy use, and guide consumer behavior, and promote the use of energy-efficient home appliances and lighting products among residents. And the "semiconductor lighting" included in the "intensify energy-saving emission reduction technology industrialization demonstration" project.

The reporter learned that in the current tenfold increase in the price of phosphors and the steep increase in the cost of energy-saving lamps, the price of LED lights has been declining due to the price cuts of upstream chips. This trend provides an opportunity for LED lighting to break through market bottlenecks.

The industry believes that this will further shake the LED lighting application market and accelerate the demonstration application and popularization of LED lighting. By the end of 2015, China's LED lighting penetration rate is expected to reach or even exceed 20%.

LED lighting will welcome the industry big shuffle

According to research data, the global LED lighting application product market in 2010 was US$4.0 billion, an increase of 40.4% year-on-year and a rapid increase. It is estimated that in 2014, the global market size of LED lighting application products will reach US$62.50 billion, 15 times that of 2010, and the compound annual growth rate will reach 73.3%.

During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, LED light source technology was included in the strategic emerging industries. It is estimated that China's lighting electricity consumption accounts for about 12% of the total electricity. In 2010, China’s total electricity generation reached 3 trillion kWh. If semiconductor lighting enters 1/3 of the lighting market, it can save 30%, that is, annual electricity. 100 billion kWh, at least equivalent to the Three Gorges Project's power generation.

Authoritative data show that in 2010 China's LED output value scale is 126 billion yuan, and in 2011 it is expected to grow by 50% to 180 billion yuan, and the LED industry's investment scale will reach 65 billion yuan. Many manufacturers began to focus on the production of LED lighting products, there are many traditional lighting companies embarked on the road to transformation.

Recently, relevant statistics show that from January to July 2011, China's LED industry plans to increase the total amount of new investment has reached 125.618 billion yuan, of which more than 40% of the funds invested in a number of industrial sectors, or even the entire industry chain investment . What is more noteworthy is that investment made by non-LED companies into the LED industry has become an important part of the LED industry's investment. Such projects account for more than 45% of all investment projects, and the amount exceeds 65% of the total investment amount.

Behind a series of figures is the impetus for the industry and policy parties to work together to promote market prosperity. In the future, the booming development of the LED lighting industry is already unstoppable. According to analysis by industry experts, compared with traditional lighting products, in the coming period, the development pattern of the LED industry will remain stable, and channel-based, which is the inevitable trend for the development of the entire lighting industry. When an industry develops to a certain stage, shuffling is a necessary process for industry promotion. The same is true for a company, and companies that have developed to a certain size will encounter a variety of bottlenecks as they move up.

The expert believes that the current domestic LED companies are rapidly developing under the encouragement and support of the government, and the next LED lighting as a new energy-saving light source, quickly recognized by consumers, enter the homes of ordinary people, the bottleneck to urgently breakthrough includes product categories, specifications , price, brand, marketing model, channel construction, etc.

Luo Wenzheng, the chief engineer of Xinli Light Source Co., Ltd. also believes that LED products will gradually become standardized and standardized in the next 3 to 5 years due to similar trends in LED products and technologies. During this time, LED lighting products will gradually usher in LEDs. Great shuffle in the industry.

Technological backwardness to "short-board" companies living in the downstream of the industrial chain

On the surface, the LED lighting industry is booming. However, the hidden worries behind the boom have also surfaced.

The LED lighting market is like a big "cake", which has brought people from all directions to give birth. However, many people just want to fish in troubled waters, and some only seek short-term profit. As the world's largest lighting market, China's LED middle and lower reaches of the technical link has become a flaw. "2010 High-brightness LED Market Review and Outlook" report pointed out that in 2010 China's LED manufacturers accounted for only 2% of the global high-brightness LED market output value, and related technology still lags behind international companies about three to five years. China's LED chip and device products are mostly concentrated in the low-power, middle and low-grade areas. Domestic chips account for less than 10% of the domestic market, even though their price is only 1/10 of that of imported chips. In addition, more than 80% of high-brightness power LED chips and devices are imported. The key equipment for epitaxial production, such as MOCVD and epitaxial substrate, high-performance silicone for encapsulation, epoxy resin, fluorescent powder, and other raw materials, basically also rely on imports.

According to people in the industry, the upper reaches of the industry have the highest return on profits. The upstream core patent technology is concentrated in Japan's Nichia, Cree, Osram, and other few overseas giants. In the field of epitaxial wafers and chips, U.S. and Japanese companies are also monopolized, taking more than 60% of profits. Most Chinese LED companies can only compete for less than 40% of the profits in the packaging industry at the end of the industry chain. A large number of LED companies rely on government municipal projects to survive and rely on subsidies to make profits.

At present, LED lighting is becoming more and more popular in urban lighting construction, lighting decoration hotels and other fields. Although the pace of LED development has accelerated, but due to the lack of relevant standards, some experts worry that the market will be confused by the quality of the product. According to relevant media reports, LED decorative lights in a few places have been dismantled because of the severe light degradation.

In addition, the price was also the most troublesome issue for companies "selling" LED lighting. In a lighting wholesale city, a dealer introduced to reporters, “We generally do not like to sell LED lights because the price of LED is very different from that of energy-saving lamps and incandescent lamps. For example, a 3W LED lamp costs 20 yuan. , 7W will be 90 yuan, and energy-saving lamps as long as 10 yuan or so, incandescent lamps only need 1 yuan; and in the eyes of ordinary people, the energy efficiency of a two-inch LED lights is really irrelevant."

“There are a few lights in the homes of the Chinese people in general. Under the lining of the power consumption of large appliances such as refrigerators, the electricity used for lighting is insignificant. Therefore, if there is no government guidance, even if the lifespan and energy-saving effect of your LED lights are longer, Well, it takes a very difficult process to open this market,” another source said.

Subsidies are expected to shake the secondary and tertiary markets

In 2009, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council took the lead to establish a cross-strait industrial coordination group and selected semiconductor (LED) lighting as one of the cross-strait industrial cooperation pilot projects. Subsequently, the National Development and Reform Commission's Central Resources Division took the lead to establish a cross-strait semiconductor lighting cooperation project coordination group and working group, carried out a lot of work and achieved a series of results.

At present, the two sides of the Taiwan Straits have not only achieved remarkable results in collaborative research on LED product testing, standard testing, and product reliability, but also jointly organized demonstration projects for LED lighting product applications and selected LED street lamps for Xiamen Torch Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone. Engineering, Guangzhou Metro Line 2 LED lighting application project as a demonstration project. The project has greatly promoted the LED lighting industry's production capacity.

According to informed sources, the Ministry of Finance in conjunction with the National Development and Reform Commission and other competent authorities will soon subsidize semiconductor lighting products, and is expected to start in the fourth quarter. Priority will be given to starting product subsidies for indoor lighting and commercial lighting, such as downlights and spotlights, and then gradually expanding. Subsidy intensity and scope.

It is reported that the National Standardization Management Committee has completed 23 LED national standard solicitation opinions. Industry insiders believe that this has cleared the standard environmental barriers for the implementation of subsidies.

According to reports, the initial stage of the subsidy will be jointly promoted by energy-saving lamps and LED lighting, and then gradually increase the proportion and share of LED, and compact the share of energy-saving lamp subsidies and efforts. “Subsidies play more of a leverage role in leveraging market applications,” informed sources said. “This will not only promote the expansion of semiconductor lighting applications in the primary market, but will also drive commercial lighting in the secondary and tertiary markets.”

With the continuous decline in costs brought about by technological advances and the availability of local government subsidy policies, the price gap between LED products and energy-saving lamps is expected to further narrow, which will help open up its terminal market and fundamentally ease the expected overcapacity of the chip. pressure.

"Two-year-old 1 watt LED chip prices were about 3 US dollars, but now it has dropped to less than 1 US dollar, and some Taiwanese and mainland-made chips are cheaper, even 3 yuan a piece." Industry sources told reporters. In May, Xu Ruiguang, the person in charge who started production of LED chips, told reporters that “in the past year or so, the price of chips has dropped from 6 to more than 2 yuan.” According to reports, the cost of chips for LED lamps is at least 1/1. 3, chip prices directly led to the decline in LED prices. "This will allow LED lamps to be accepted by more consumers more quickly and directly drive the market share of LED lamps."

In addition, the current domestic companies have begun to get involved in the field of LED equipment and raw materials, it is worth noting that such enterprises in the upstream area in the initial stage, the future level of technology and other aspects still need to be improved.