Taiwan, the United States and South Korea 18-inch wafer all positions, when the former overlord Japan when involved?

In September last year, the world’s top three semiconductor camps in Taiwan, the United States and South Korea jointly announced the Global 450 Consortium 18-inch wafer plan (G450C). Participants included TSMC, Intel, Samsung Electronics, IBM and Global Foundries. Five companies, but the list of Japan's global semiconductor industry in the 1980s is scarce; TSMC’s 18-inch wafer production line will begin trial production between 2013 and 2014, symbolizing that the 18-inch wafer generation will enter the countdown period. How could Japan be absent? ?

In the 1980s, Japan was the overlord of the global semiconductor industry. In the ranking of the world's top 10 semiconductor manufacturers, NEC (now Renesas), Toshiba, Hitachi always occupied the top 3, then Intel (Intel) ) Also narrowly squeezed into the top 10 final classes. During the peak period of Japanese semiconductor development, the chip output value accounted for nearly 70% of the global semiconductor industry.

Around 2001, the share of Japan’s semiconductor chip market accounted for 30% or less of the world's total. Looking at the 2011 global semiconductor industry rankings, only Toshiba and Renesas squeezed into the 4th and 5th places, and the two companies combined The share does not exceed 8%.

After the decline of Japan’s semiconductor power, the American and South Korean forces began to rise. Intel decided to abandon DRAM to concentrate resources on microprocessors (CPU) after the decline in the mid-1980s, laying the foundation for global semiconductor dominance. Since the beginning of 1990, Intel dominated for almost 20 years. Long. Moreover, during the 1990s, Motorola was also a frequent visitor to the top 10 in the world except Intel. However, after independence semiconductor company Freescale was established in 2004, the forces gradually retreated.

South Korea's rapid development is the legend of the global semiconductor industry. It is a huge force that cannot be ignored. Twenty years ago, Samsung was a small business whose name was unknown. When it entered the semiconductor industry at the beginning of the mid-1980s, it was all the way to rely on the authorization of DRAM technology from the major US and Japanese semiconductor manufacturers. The South Korean government’s strategy for vigorously supporting large-scale groups has enabled Samsung’s forces not only to catch up with Japan, but also to become Intel’s strongest rival.

With Moore's Law facing a bottleneck, the semiconductor industry realized that relying on process miniaturization to drive down costs will not be enough to support the simultaneous growth of terminal demand in the future.

TSMC analyzed that under Moore's Law, the semiconductor production cost will drop by as much as 29% annually from 1993 to 2000. However, by 2010 to 2018, the annual reduction in semiconductor production costs will be reduced to 26%. This reduces the annual cost reduction by 3%. Continuing to 2017, it will lead to a two-fold increase in the price of the end product, which will undermine the urgency of the coming generation of 18-inch wafers.

TSMC further analyzed that at the time of the 12-inch wafer era, each semiconductor factory had enough funds to build factories on its own, and the capital market was easy to raise capital. However, each of the factories and products that make up each of them also made it possible in 1992. During the period of 2006, the amount of equipment R&D in the 12-inch wafer era was as high as US$11.6 billion, which was substantially higher than the US$1.4 billion in equipment R&D investment during the 1986-1994 period in the 8-inch wafer era.

However, after the advent of the 18-inch wafer era, various semiconductor companies realized that the funds and technical thresholds for equipment and process technology R&D are too high to be adjusted by each individual. Therefore, it was only at the forefront that TSMC, Intel, and Samsung were among the top 3 in the world. Semiconductor giants gave birth to the Global 450 Consortium program.

After Taiwan, the United States, and South Korea, the world’s top three semiconductor camp leaders, are all in place, only Japan has yet to declare its position. Toshiba’s attitude toward the arrival of 18-inch wafers is still very conservative.

According to industry analysis, for most semiconductor manufacturers, 18-inch wafer investment is indeed expensive, and the bottleneck of the machine equipment has not been lifted, and the Japanese are conservative. However, with the competitors all in place, the future of Japan will be 18-inch. It is impossible to absent in the world. Toshiba will also fight with Samsung for global NAND flash dominance, and it will not be able to pay for the 12-inch fab in SanDisk in Japan. It will not be possible to miss the next semiconductor generation. It is only a matter of time. .

According to industry analysis, the Japanese official intends to integrate semiconductor resources, especially the cooperation between Toshiba and Elpida. This idea has been known since the financial tsunami in 2008. Elpida is already the only remaining DRAM factory in Japan, and the Japanese government cannot let it. Must follow the trail of Qimonda, and Japan is capable of supporting Elpida.

The industry further analyzes that in the future if Japan also moves toward 18-inch wafer fab generations, it will not be possible to plant 18-inch plants because of its huge investment. Absolutely it will concentrate its resources on a semiconductor factory, and NAND Flash and DRAM chips 2 will be integrated in a large number of production-type chips. It is best to digest the resources of the 18-inch wafers, so if Toshiba and Elpida really fit together, there are also some strategic implications.