Copenhagen Climate Summit LED Lighting Wins New Investment Opportunities

According to Xinhuanet, from December 7 to 18, the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Fifth Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol will be held in Copenhagen, Denmark; Leaders from more than 60 countries will gather here to discuss ways to curb climate warming. In the next two weeks starting next Monday, the A-share market is destined to turn around the Copenhagen conference.

And the Copenhagen Conference faces a low-carbon economy that is much broader than new energy. Which sub-sectors will have better opportunities? The Daily Economic News invites industry analysts to answer these questions.

What can Focus One bring to A-shares?

After the twists and turns in early November, the current expectations of the conference have gradually turned to the positive side, especially after China and the United States announced their emission reduction targets last week. Shenyin Wanguo believes that under the efforts of China and the United States, the outcome of this meeting will not be lower than expected.

Feng Wei, a new energy industry analyst at Xiangcai Securities, also tends to form a framework agreement. The team in his group has systematically combed the A-share low-carbon economy in the past two months. Feng Wei said that if we can further quantify the specific emission reduction targets of each country on this basis, it will exceed expectations for the outside world.

On the whole, major analysts agree that the A-share low-carbon sector can be launched with the Copenhagen conference, and strong policy expectations are the most important factor. Feng Wei said that if China shows a high stance at this conference, it will be expected to enter the intensive release period of new energy and energy conservation and emission reduction policies in the first half of next year. The first thing to be released in the future should be a programmatic plan that integrates the overall situation, and then the ministries and commissions will improve the specific details such as subsidies and taxes.

What is the focus of the second A-share investment?

The scope of the low-carbon economy is far from being summed up by the “new energy” that is familiar to the market. In fact, opening up the industry reports recently released by major brokers, we can see that “low carbon” has become a part of wind power, photovoltaic, nuclear power, biomass, smart grid, new energy vehicles, IGCC, CCS, BIPV, LED and even CDM. A huge system of many sub-sectors.

Then, at the arrival of the Copenhagen conference, which sectors should investors choose to invest in? For this issue, the major brokerage researchers are quite embarrassed. Feng Wei said that it is difficult to say who is particularly good, and whoever has a chance, even There is a policy, and it is difficult to target only one or a few sub-divisions. In addition, it is particularly difficult to grasp the time.

However, for the Copenhagen conference, market participants have their own special interpretation. Previously, private investors in Shenzhen told reporters that whether it is the previous new energy or low carbon, even if there is policy support, the concept is greater than the essence, and the speculation of funds on the concept has always been "his new and tired". Therefore, in terms of actual combat Compared with traditional alternative energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics that have been known for the market, there will be more opportunities for “new things”.

After interviewing industry analysts, “Daily Economic News” selected clean coal technology, building energy conservation, and CDM project as the focus of the current securities market weekly. The above sub-sectors have followed the following selection criteria: occupied in a low-carbon economy. Important position, there are clear policy expectations or listed companies can actually benefit, and the relevant stocks have not been explored on a large scale by the market.

Focus area

Clean coal field

In mid-November, US President Barack Obama visited China and China and the United States issued a joint statement. The statement stressed that the two countries will cooperate extensively in the fields of energy efficiency improvement, electric vehicles, clean coal utilization, carbon capture and carbon sequestration, and nuclear energy.

For China, how important is clean coal technology? “Clean coal technology will be placed in the most important position in the low-carbon economy and new energy industry.” Zhou Haiou, a researcher at the Low Carbon Economy and New Energy Group of Guoyuan Securities, said that rich coal The resource conditions of poor oil and low gas determine that the energy pattern dominated by thermal power will not change in the short term. The development of pollution-free clean coal power generation technology is the key to achieving a low-carbon economy in China.

Although there are two technologies for integrated gasification combined cycle power generation and carbon capture and storage, Feng Wei said that the former will be the mainstream of clean coal power generation technology in the future. CCS is currently too costly. Although IGCC also has cost problems, it has obvious advantages in terms of cycle efficiency, waste utilization, carbon emission reduction, and water conservation. However, Feng Wei also stressed that despite the broad prospects, China's IGCC is still of a conceptual nature at this stage.

For the equipment suppliers in the IGCC system, the listed companies in the gasifier are Huaguang, Hailu Heavy Industry, Dongfang Electric, Keda Electromechanical, etc. The gas turbines include Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric, and the air separation furnaces have Tianke shares. .





LED lighting

Yan Jun, deputy secretary-general of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, said at a trade seminar recently that China will continue to promote LED lighting next year, including the National Development and Reform Commission's plan to include LED lighting in subsidies and local governments to subsidize LED street lights.

If the LED lighting market can be launched on a large scale, it will definitely be a leap in the development of the industry. It is only necessary to imagine that the huge household lighting, street lamps and landscape lights are all replaced with LED lights. Investors have been able to estimate the market research in the market. With the advancement of technology and the development of application fields, the LED lighting market will reach 1.6 billion US dollars by 2012, with a compound growth rate of 37%.

In the LED field, in addition to the more familiar Sanan Optoelectronics, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Tongfang shares, etc., Zhejiang Sunshine, Snowlight, and Foshan Lighting are expected to benefit from downstream lighting; in addition to Taihao Technology and Yanhua, photovoltaic building integration and intelligent building In addition to smart, solar thin film battery manufacturers and upstream raw material manufacturers will also enter the benefit sequence, such as CSG A, Jinjing Technology, etc.; the curtain wall also has Fangda A, AVIC Sanxin; energy-saving materials in the North New Building Materials, Yantai Wanhua as the representative .

CDM project related company

This is the best low-carbon concept this week. San Aifu and Juhua shares have attracted a lot of market attention. In the words of a large brokerage analyst in Beijing, "even if the Copenhagen conference can not reach any agreement at the end, the CDM mechanism will still be greatly developed afterwards." The analyst who declined to be named believes that once the United States joins the global carbon trading market, Carbon supply demand will increase significantly. As a major supplier, China will benefit from the development of the CDM mechanism.

The levy of "carbon tariffs" on high-energy-consumption and high-pollution industries in Europe and the United States will become the biggest motivation for Chinese enterprises to develop CDM projects. The analyst said that it is not a matter of time for the industry to improve energy efficiency upgrades. High-energy-consuming industries should avoid or compensate for the impact of “carbon tariffs”. It is a realistic choice to obtain revenue through CDM projects. At present, listed companies developing CDM projects in China are mostly concentrated in the chemical industry, and can be expanded to other industries such as coal, steel, cement, and papermaking in the future.

Feng Wei’s evaluation of the CDM project is “there is imagination space”, but the actual benefits should be “depending on the situation of listed companies.” For example, Baosteel Co., Ltd. and Guodian Power Development’s CDM project, each year’s revenue is more than one billion yuan. It is not outstanding, so the benefits are more small and medium-sized companies. The reporter confirmed from the listed company that the companies with CDM projects include Shenma Industry, Liuhua, Xinghua, Chuanhua, and Yanneng, but they will have to wait for the company after the next year.

Operational strategy

Pay attention to the policy and tap the essence of benefiting companies

The Copenhagen conference will be held next Monday. After this week's warm-up, will the relevant stocks start or "see the light"?

Judging from the recent interviews of the reporters, the industry has placed great expectations on the investment opportunities brought by the conference to the A-share market. All major brokers are optimistic about the performance of the low-carbon sector. However, investors need to pay close attention to the policy direction and look for companies that can actually benefit.

In the past two weeks, the A-share low-carbon sector has been eye-catching in companies with CDM projects and environmental protection concepts, such as San Aifu, Feida Environmental, Longjing Environmental Protection, etc. The weekly gains of the above three stocks reached 19.10%, respectively. 15.01%, 10.53%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 7.13% in the same period. However, in the view of Zhou Haiou, a researcher of the Low Carbon Economy and New Energy Group of Guoyuan Securities, it is unlikely that these stocks will continue to rise after the scenery. The biggest problems, such as Fida environmental protection, net environmental protection, the desulfurization business that the market is concerned about, and other stocks that are favored by funds such as waste incineration and sewage treatment, are not directly related to “carbon emission reduction”.

The information on the seats disclosed by the exchange shows that the organization not only did not participate in the relevant stocks, but sold out after San Aifu went out of two daily limit; after the continuous daily limit of Feida environmental protection, it was a hot-selling “relay game”. The above two stocks On December 4th, the decline was around 5%, indicating that some profit-taking orders were selected and the profits were eliminated.

Zhou Haiou said that it is basically meaningless to follow the progress of the Copenhagen conference to select stocks, because even if the final agreement is reached, it will focus on the macro aspect. It is difficult to provide clear guidance to the market without guiding documents that are not implemented in specific details. direction. He believes that China's stance during the meeting and the future policy direction will determine the investment in individual stocks.

Based on the information that has been transmitted, the industry believes that the policies that China may launch in the near future include: the development guidance of polysilicon industry, which is expected to involve the formulation of industry access standards and further planning of production capacity; low-carbon economic revitalization plan, this It is based on the expansion of the new energy industry plan that the market expects in the first half of this year; and the high-profile LED lighting subsidy is also expected to take place next year.

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