High-brightness LED will become the main kinetic energy of future LED market growth
In the LED Forum 2009 seminar, the associates of LEDInside Research Department of LED Technology Research Group expressed their views on the LED industry trends in 2010. It is estimated that high-brightness LEDs such as large-size backlights and lighting will become the main kinetic energy for the future growth of the LED market. The large-scale backlight annual compound growth rate will be as high as 73%, the lighting market grows slowly, and the annual compound growth rate is about 32%. The eye-catching lighting application, due to the undeveloped standard, is not expected to take off until 2011-2012. .
Affected by the financial turmoil, Jibang estimated that the global LED industry output value reached about 7.41 billion US dollars in 2009, which was the same as last year's 7.438 billion US dollars. However, due to the early cut into the large-size backlight market by several major manufacturers, the Korean factory's revenue share increased significantly from last year's 7% to 13% this year, while Taiwan's factory maintained 16%. Declined from 40% to 35%.
According to the price trend, the LED chip of NB application has dropped sharply from the end of last year, with a drop of 40-50%, but it has accelerated the introduction of LED backlighting by NB. At present, the price difference between the high and low price is about 0.05-0.1 US dollars. The impact, Chu Yuchao said, this year's decline is actually less than last year. In terms of small-size mobile phone LED backlights, high and low prices are also affected by patents, with a distinct difference of about $0.08 and $0.03 each. Relatively speaking, large-size LED TVs can avoid patents due to non-movable characteristics. Approximately $0.20, which was stored in excess of expectations, has benefited from the application and has only begun to decline. The decline in the next two quarters is limited.
As for the high-power LED segment, the price of the mainstream products in 80-100 lumens per watt is slower, about 2 US dollars per watt, but the price of 60-80 lumens per watt is falling fast. Chu Yuchao pointed out that the LED factory will introduce new specifications in the next two quarters, and the quotation will be the same as the previous generation specifications. However, if there is a price per lumen, there is still room for decline.
In 2009, the market size of high-power LEDs grew by 0.4% compared with last year to 5.16 billion US dollars, mainly from the growth of large-size applications such as NB, Netbook and TV. The impact of the financial turmoil at the end of the year has made mobile phones, automobiles and other applications It has offset the growth of large-size products. It is estimated that the high-brightness LED market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 25% in the next few years.
The LED backlight market has been dominated by mobile phones in 2008, and has gradually moved to large-size applications such as NB. In 2013, large-size backlights will account for 50% of global LED output and 16% of lighting output value, supporting the future LED market. The main source of demand, LED TV, although the panel factory has reduced the number of doubts, but the direct-type products will grow, so the high-brightness LED backlight annual compound growth rate is still as high as 73%.
From the perspective of industrial supply chain, Chu Yuchao pointed out that patents on LED NB are still the key. LED manufacturers such as Nichia (yield) account for 70% of the market. The main reason is that the panel is not an important component of NB, so the brand factory Do not want to use products with infringement concerns, which also makes the panel factory a dominant position in the LED NB field.
However, LED TVs are different from this. Chu Yuchao said that due to the non-movability of LED TVs, LED TVs can be circumvented as long as they are sold in areas that are not subject to patent restrictions, and Korean manufacturers can directly integrate Taiwan LED factories and jointly develop specifications. The factory has become the biggest beneficiary. Recently, many wafer or packaging factories have jointly invested in panel factories. In any case, in the super-emphasis, the LED backlight industry trend has taken shape.
As for lighting, from low power to high power, high-brightness LEDs will move toward high color rendering and high luminous flux in the future. According to Chu Chao, the traditional light source output value reached 21.5 billion US dollars in 2008, of which incandescent light bulbs accounted for 30%, equal to an annual replacement of 16-20 billion, which attracted quite a lot of industry players to jump into lighting applications.
However, the cost of LED lighting is still quite high, and unlike the 3C path mode, it is not easy to copy. Therefore, the storage of ultra-expected LED lighting market will show a slow growth, the compound annual growth rate of about 32% per year before 2013.
From the perspective of the industrial supply chain, Chu Yuchao pointed out that international giants Philps and Osram hold the largest channels, and because of the different market sales patterns, the terminal price is 3-4 times higher than the ex-factory price, affecting consumers. Purchasing willingness, fortunately, this year has begun to see the opportunity, the big manufacturers desperately reduce the terminal price, and to reduce costs or change the channel type to respond, for example, to online direct marketing (B2C).
However, changes in the type of access also expose the industry to the biggest problem: pricing strategies. Due to the channel type such as direct sales, the bottom line of the cost structure of the industry is similar. The new competitors only continue to reduce costs, but how to ensure quality is a very important consideration. Chu Yuchao believes that the quality of LED lighting products is still more worrying before the lighting standards are formulated.
USB4 Series Cable,USB 4 Cable,USB 4.0 Harness,USB Cable 4.0
Dong guan Sum Wai Electronic Co,. Ltd. , https://www.sw-cables.com