Smart grids are rapidly gaining popularity! The forecast for new demand for smart meters has risen linearly
As global energy demand increases, governments in different countries begin to introduce smart grid technology to achieve environmentally friendly development and reduce energy consumption, and use other available energy sources to improve demand outside the grid, including China, Italy, India and the United States. The state has developed relevant plans. The rapid spread of smart grids will drive the rapid growth of the smart meter market in the next few years.
According to statistics from the Prospective Industry Research Institute's "Smart Meter Industry Development Prospects and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report", the State Grid has so far accumulatively submitted 477 million smart meters, of which the number of smart meters tendered by the State Grid exceeded in 2014 and 2015. 90 million units. In 2016, the number of first batch of tenders reached 37.94 million units. However, in the second batch of tenders for 2016, which ended in July, the number of tenders for smart meters directly fell to nearly 8.26 million units, and the number of subcontracts also dropped significantly. This batch has 17 The provinces have not reported the demand for smart meters, indicating that most of the provinces have already covered the full coverage of smart meters.
In addition, at present, the State Grid is planning to promote the object-oriented 698 protocol and the IR46 standard. In the case that the new standard is about to be implemented, the inventory rotation should not be carried out too quickly. Therefore, the current temporary decline in the amount of tenders is also within the market expectation. It is expected that in 2018. The market will usher in a turning point.
Number of smart meters tendered by State Grid over the years
Since the tender began in 2009, a total of 103 companies have had the winning record of smart meters. There are 51 companies that have won more than 13 bids, and the overall market share has reached more than 90%. As of 2015, Samsung Electric became the biggest winner of smart meter winning, but the number of winning bids only accounted for 6.11% of the market. It can be seen that the industry concentration of smart meters is very low and the competition is very intense.
Due to the comprehensive construction of the smart grid and the promotion and upgrading of the rural power grid, the smart meter market is developing rapidly. In the future, new users will use smart meters, and the full coverage of smart meters will be basically realized during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. As of 2015, State Grid has completed the bidding of 430 million smart meters, of which residential smart meters accounted for 85%, and the national network operating area has reached a total of 312 million installations. According to the “one household and one table†of Chinese residents According to policy calculations, the total demand for smart meters for residential use in China exceeds 450 million units. Considering other uses such as industry and commerce, the total space of smart meters is currently 530 million units.
With reference to the current slowdown in real estate sales, the penetration rate of smart meters has been relatively high. By 2020, 70 million new households will be added. It is expected that the smart meter market will grow at a rate of 5% in the next few years. According to the current penetration rate of smart meters, considering the update demand brought by the State Grid to implement the new meter standard IR46, and the huge demand for the use of smart meters by the South Network, it is estimated that the new demand for smart meters in China during the “13th Five-Year Plan†period will be about There are 270 million units, and the average incremental space of smart meters is 62.1 billion yuan.
With the installation of more and more smart meters, China's smart meters began to enter the inventory replacement stage. Smart meters generally began to be replaced after 8 years of operation. Since the tender began in 2009, the replacement market will become the growth of the smart meter market from 2017. A major driving force. According to the bidding record, it is estimated that the demand for smart meter replacement in 2016-2020 will be about 190 million units, and the replacement space will be 43.7 billion yuan, basically all from the Guowang area.
Forecast of China's smart meter demand during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period
Therefore, it is estimated that during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, China will add 460 million new smart meters, and the overall market space will exceed 103 billion yuan. We predict that the 16th and 17th years will be lower than before. The 2018 update and replacement boom will lead the smart meter to usher in the inflection point of demand, and renew the number of bids for more than 14 or 15 years, and maintain a growth rate of nearly 15% in the future.
In order to facilitate smart meter companies and those in need to better understand the information of the smart meter industry, the Prospective Industry Research Institute provides free online consultation services for experts. The experienced senior researchers will answer the questions related to the smart meter industry online. According to the specific situation of your company, provide the most professional advice, effectively avoid the investment risk of the smart meter industry, more effectively consolidate or expand the corresponding strategic target market, and firmly grasp the initiative of industry competition.
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