Analysis of Power Economic Situation in 2012
Social power growth slows down and Power Supply balances tight
Digital Express: According to the survey results, 72.11% (1060 votes) readers believe that the country’s electricity consumption in the country as a whole will fall from last year's growth rate compared to last year, and 25.78% ( votes: 379) of readers think it will increase, and think that Only 2.11% (31 votes). For the electricity supply situation, 69.66% (voicing: 1024) readers consider it balanced, while another 15.58% (votes: 229) readers think it will be in a tight balance, with only a small portion of readers of other options.
According to the reporter’s observation, in 2011, due to factors such as declining hydropower output, tight supply of power coal, maladjusted power grid structure, and rapid economic and power demand growth, the overall power supply and demand in the country was tight, and power shortages were severe in some regions and periods. A total of 24 provincial power grids across the country have been in short supply, and the maximum power shortage has exceeded 30 million kilowatts. By adopting cross-district and inter-provincial power support, strengthening demand-side management, and implementing orderly power utilization and other measures, the contradiction between power supply and demand has been effectively alleviated, and the stable and healthy economic and social development has been guaranteed. Regarding the power economic situation in 2012, the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation analyzed that due to the expected effects of the country’s macroeconomic regulation and control, the economy will continue to develop steadily and rapidly, and the growth of power demand will slow down, but this will be slowed by the growth of installed capacity, especially thermal power equipment. Due to the lack of coal supply and uncertainties in the availability of hydropower, it is expected that electricity supply and demand will remain tight in the country, and regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages will be more prominent. The reader’s judgment is roughly in line with the expert opinion.
It is more difficult for thermal power companies to turn around losses in thermal power utilization
Digital Express: According to the survey results, 50.07% (of 736) readers believe that the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment will increase compared to last year, 35.03% ( votes: 515) readers believe that it will be flat, only a small part The reader thinks it will be lower than last year. For the overall operating situation of the thermal power industry this year, 49.86% (votes: 733) of readers believe that they will continue to lose money, and 43.13% (of 634 votes) believe that they will make a slight profit.
According to the reporter's observation, in 2011, although the nation's coal storage capacity of power plants was generally at a relatively high level, it was affected by factors such as uneven distribution of power coal stocks and continuous operation of coal prices in the market. Although the number of thermal power utilization hours increased, thermal power companies suffered overall losses. serious. Although the state raised the on-grid tariff of thermal power from December 1, 2011, some experts believe that because the adjustment is not in place, and the trend of thermal coal prices is uncertain, the thermal costs of thermal power companies are higher, and thermal power companies are I am afraid that spring is still far away.
Hydropower generation is better than last year. Newly approved hydropower projects are expected to increase
Digital Express: The survey results show that 81.29% (1,195 votes) readers believe that the average utilization hours of hydropower equipment will increase compared to last year; 43.13% ( votes: 634) readers believe that there will be more new this year The large-scale hydropower projects were approved, and nearly half of the readers considered the situation difficult to judge.
Reporter's observation: In 2011, the national average precipitation was 556.8 mm, which is 9% less than normal, which is the lowest in 60 years. Especially the annual precipitation in Hunan and Guizhou provinces is the least since 1951, resulting in a significant reduction in hydropower output, and hydropower output. With a decrease of 3.5%, the utilization hours of hydropower equipment were 3028 hours, a decrease of 376 hours from the previous year, and it was the lowest in nearly 30 years. Judging from the current signs, in 2012, the hydropower output will not repeat the story of last year. Therefore, the vast majority of readers are optimistic that the number of hours of utilization of hydropower equipment will increase year-on-year.
In 2011, it was the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The annual new installed capacity of hydropower increased significantly compared with 2010, but it was lower than the annual average of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. According to the "12th Five-Year Plan" for renewable energy, China's hydropower capacity will reach 290 million kilowatts by 2015, of which conventional hydropower will be 260 million kilowatts. According to this calculation, hydropower installed capacity during the 12th Five-Year Plan will increase by 15.32 million kilowatts per year. Many readers believe that there will be more new large-scale hydropower projects approved this year, which is not unexpected. According to experts, as of now, the National Development and Reform Commission has approved a total of 93.335 million kilowatts of hydropower projects that have not yet been approved, but conventional hydropower has agreed to carry out preliminary work of 66.753 million kilowatts. Pumped storage agreed to carry out preliminary work. A total of 7.6 million kilowatts were agreed, and 19 million kilowatts were agreed for site selection.
Nuclear power construction is expected to restart wind power and photovoltaic power generation investment bullish
Digital Express: According to the survey results, 49.73% (of 731) readers believe that China will restart nuclear power construction in the near future. 28.84% (votes: 424) of readers believe that China will not restart nuclear power construction in the near future. 21.43% (of 315 votes) The reader thinks it is hard to say. 50.61% (number of votes: 744) readers believe that China's wind power investment in 2012 will increase compared to 2011. Nearly 70% of readers believe that China's investment in photovoltaic power generation in 2012 will increase or significantly increase compared to 2011.
Reporter's observation: Affected by the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, in the first half of last year, China suspended the approval of new nuclear power projects. With the conclusion of the inspection of domestic nuclear power safety in August last year, especially after the final investigation report concluded that "the safety of nuclear power projects that have been operated and are under construction in China", the industry's expectations for the resumption of new nuclear power projects will increase. Relevant persons in nuclear power management departments also released a series of positive policy signals on different occasions. The concept of “nuclear power continues to develop safely and efficiently†has gradually become the consensus in the industry. At present, some companies in China have begun to receive orders from nuclear power plant operators. This became the "melting ice" signal for the restart of nuclear power projects.
In recent years, China's wind power, solar energy and other new energy sources have been rapidly developing. In particular, wind power installed capacity has doubled year after year. By the end of 2011, it has reached 45.05 million kilowatts, and the newly added installed capacity of wind power accounts for nearly 20% of all new installed capacity. However, unlike readers' predictions, some experts believe that after the explosive growth of wind power in recent years, its development speed should be reduced, and photovoltaic power generation is in a stage of great development.
Enterprises can accept new emission standards but denitrification price is difficult to offset cost increase
Digital Express: "The 12th Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" and the "Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Thermal Power Plants" have set new standards for the discharge of electric power pollutants. More than half of the readers believe that thermal power companies can accept new standards but exceed Twenty percent of readers believe that the new standard is too harsh. For a coal-fired power plant with a denitrification device installed and operating normally, the country has set a price of 0.8 cents per kilowatt-hour for denitrification, and more than 40% of readers believe that it cannot compensate for the increase in denitrification costs. Nearly 30% of readers believe that the denitrification price should be based on the situation of different companies. And set.
According to the reporter’s observation, according to the newly revised emission standards, the standards for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and soot emissions are higher than those of other countries. Different from readers' predictions, industry experts generally stated that the new standards are too strict and “strict to crazy.†The electric power companies also stated that this standard is difficult to accomplish, and readers think that companies can accept them as strange. For the trial price of denitrification electricity, 0.8 points per kilowatt-hour increase, experts believe that it is not enough to make up for the increase in denitrification costs, which is consistent with the views of many readers.
It is still a long time before the price of residential electricity is properly implemented.
Digital express: The survey results show that 71.16% (1046 votes) of readers believe that the current residents' electricity price is moderate, and 21.43% (votes: 315) of readers believe that the current residents' electricity price is low, and only a small number of readers believe that the current residents' electricity price is biased. high. More than 90% of readers believe that the implementation of the ladder price in most provinces and cities in the country will take place in the last three quarters.
Reporter's observation: Relevant materials show that in recent years, the overall adjustment rate of China's electricity sales price is relatively low. At present, China's industrial electricity prices are at the middle level in the world, and the electricity price of residents is lower than most foreign countries. The industrial electricity price bears some of the cross-subsidies to residents' electricity prices. . Most readers believe that the level of residential electricity prices is moderate and may be related to the low level of average income of domestic residents. As for the implementation of the ladder price, related data show that in 2010, two-thirds of China’s households consumed only one-third of their electricity, and the highest-income 5% of high-income households consumed 24% of their electricity. From this perspective, the implementation of the ladder price is very urgent, but limited to a series of conditions, although the long-awaited ladder price finally settled after more than a year of solicitation of opinions, but when the provinces and cities began to implement this year Unknown number.
The effect of electricity coal price intervention is limited to eliminate indiscriminate charging of circulating links
Digital Express: The survey results show that 84.62% (number of votes: 1244) readers predict that the price of key coal contracts this year will increase by more than 5%, which means that it exceeds the limit set by the National Development and Reform Commission. 64.08% (number of votes: 942) readers predict that the implementation of the coal ceiling price will be discounted. 57.82% (votes: 850) readers predicted that the results of the comprehensive clean-up and consolidation of coal-related funds and fees would cancel some of the unreasonable fees. More than 30% of readers believe that there will be no results.
According to the reporter's observation, the summary of key coal coal contracts in 2012 far exceeds the total amount of 834.6 million tons of inter-provincial coal railway transportation capacity previously announced by the National Development and Reform Commission. This shows that at the same time as the signing of key coal contracts, coal companies have tying certain The amount of general contracts, so that on the surface, the growth of key coal prices did not exceed the upper limit set by the National Development and Reform Commission, but the actual increase was in line with most readers' forecasts. The measures to limit the price of power coal for market trading have been implemented. Because the current price of coal has fallen, it has not touched the "ceiling" of coal prices. The effectiveness of the policy remains to be seen. As regards comprehensively cleaning up and reorganizing coal-related funds and fees, it is a cliché. Each time it is fruitless. This time, the state has intensified its policy implementation and is expected to cancel some unreasonable charges.
Electricity price adjustment is expected to be higher in power reform
Digital Express: The survey results show that 63.95% (votes: 940) of readers believe that the price will be adjusted this year. 35.71% (votes: 525) readers believe that the focus of this year's reform is to focus on rationalizing the coal-electricity contradiction. 28.10% ( votes: 413) of readers believe that the focus of the reform is electricity price reform, and that more than 20% of readers believe that the focus of reform It is to deepen separation between the main and auxiliary.
According to the reporter's observation, in 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission had adjusted the price of electricity three times. The previous two price adjustments did not achieve the goal of solving the difficulties for thermal power companies. At the same time, the third adjustment of electricity prices also introduced comprehensive control measures. The overall operating status of thermal power companies is It turned better, but there are also some thermal power companies, so it is expected to increase the on-grid price.
In respect of power system reform, based on the work plan of the Electricity Regulatory Commission for the promotion of power reform in 2012, on the basis of consolidating the results of the separation of plant and network, this year will establish a pilot operation program for the comprehensive reform of the transmission and distribution system to promote the relevant pilot work. At the same time, with the aim of resolving the contradiction between coal and electricity, we will actively advance the reform of the electricity pricing mechanism and gradually establish a fair and reasonable market price mechanism for the coal and electricity industry chain. Promote the use of electricity to increase the price of high-energy-consuming industries, in order to ease the electricity contradiction during peak hours, and form a mechanism to adjust the industry. The reader’s forecast is basically consistent with the SERC's reform work program.
Digital Express: According to the survey results, 72.11% (1060 votes) readers believe that the country’s electricity consumption in the country as a whole will fall from last year's growth rate compared to last year, and 25.78% ( votes: 379) of readers think it will increase, and think that Only 2.11% (31 votes). For the electricity supply situation, 69.66% (voicing: 1024) readers consider it balanced, while another 15.58% (votes: 229) readers think it will be in a tight balance, with only a small portion of readers of other options.
According to the reporter’s observation, in 2011, due to factors such as declining hydropower output, tight supply of power coal, maladjusted power grid structure, and rapid economic and power demand growth, the overall power supply and demand in the country was tight, and power shortages were severe in some regions and periods. A total of 24 provincial power grids across the country have been in short supply, and the maximum power shortage has exceeded 30 million kilowatts. By adopting cross-district and inter-provincial power support, strengthening demand-side management, and implementing orderly power utilization and other measures, the contradiction between power supply and demand has been effectively alleviated, and the stable and healthy economic and social development has been guaranteed. Regarding the power economic situation in 2012, the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation analyzed that due to the expected effects of the country’s macroeconomic regulation and control, the economy will continue to develop steadily and rapidly, and the growth of power demand will slow down, but this will be slowed by the growth of installed capacity, especially thermal power equipment. Due to the lack of coal supply and uncertainties in the availability of hydropower, it is expected that electricity supply and demand will remain tight in the country, and regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages will be more prominent. The reader’s judgment is roughly in line with the expert opinion.
It is more difficult for thermal power companies to turn around losses in thermal power utilization
Digital Express: According to the survey results, 50.07% (of 736) readers believe that the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment will increase compared to last year, 35.03% ( votes: 515) readers believe that it will be flat, only a small part The reader thinks it will be lower than last year. For the overall operating situation of the thermal power industry this year, 49.86% (votes: 733) of readers believe that they will continue to lose money, and 43.13% (of 634 votes) believe that they will make a slight profit.
According to the reporter's observation, in 2011, although the nation's coal storage capacity of power plants was generally at a relatively high level, it was affected by factors such as uneven distribution of power coal stocks and continuous operation of coal prices in the market. Although the number of thermal power utilization hours increased, thermal power companies suffered overall losses. serious. Although the state raised the on-grid tariff of thermal power from December 1, 2011, some experts believe that because the adjustment is not in place, and the trend of thermal coal prices is uncertain, the thermal costs of thermal power companies are higher, and thermal power companies are I am afraid that spring is still far away.
Hydropower generation is better than last year. Newly approved hydropower projects are expected to increase
Digital Express: The survey results show that 81.29% (1,195 votes) readers believe that the average utilization hours of hydropower equipment will increase compared to last year; 43.13% ( votes: 634) readers believe that there will be more new this year The large-scale hydropower projects were approved, and nearly half of the readers considered the situation difficult to judge.
Reporter's observation: In 2011, the national average precipitation was 556.8 mm, which is 9% less than normal, which is the lowest in 60 years. Especially the annual precipitation in Hunan and Guizhou provinces is the least since 1951, resulting in a significant reduction in hydropower output, and hydropower output. With a decrease of 3.5%, the utilization hours of hydropower equipment were 3028 hours, a decrease of 376 hours from the previous year, and it was the lowest in nearly 30 years. Judging from the current signs, in 2012, the hydropower output will not repeat the story of last year. Therefore, the vast majority of readers are optimistic that the number of hours of utilization of hydropower equipment will increase year-on-year.
In 2011, it was the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The annual new installed capacity of hydropower increased significantly compared with 2010, but it was lower than the annual average of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. According to the "12th Five-Year Plan" for renewable energy, China's hydropower capacity will reach 290 million kilowatts by 2015, of which conventional hydropower will be 260 million kilowatts. According to this calculation, hydropower installed capacity during the 12th Five-Year Plan will increase by 15.32 million kilowatts per year. Many readers believe that there will be more new large-scale hydropower projects approved this year, which is not unexpected. According to experts, as of now, the National Development and Reform Commission has approved a total of 93.335 million kilowatts of hydropower projects that have not yet been approved, but conventional hydropower has agreed to carry out preliminary work of 66.753 million kilowatts. Pumped storage agreed to carry out preliminary work. A total of 7.6 million kilowatts were agreed, and 19 million kilowatts were agreed for site selection.
Nuclear power construction is expected to restart wind power and photovoltaic power generation investment bullish
Digital Express: According to the survey results, 49.73% (of 731) readers believe that China will restart nuclear power construction in the near future. 28.84% (votes: 424) of readers believe that China will not restart nuclear power construction in the near future. 21.43% (of 315 votes) The reader thinks it is hard to say. 50.61% (number of votes: 744) readers believe that China's wind power investment in 2012 will increase compared to 2011. Nearly 70% of readers believe that China's investment in photovoltaic power generation in 2012 will increase or significantly increase compared to 2011.
Reporter's observation: Affected by the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, in the first half of last year, China suspended the approval of new nuclear power projects. With the conclusion of the inspection of domestic nuclear power safety in August last year, especially after the final investigation report concluded that "the safety of nuclear power projects that have been operated and are under construction in China", the industry's expectations for the resumption of new nuclear power projects will increase. Relevant persons in nuclear power management departments also released a series of positive policy signals on different occasions. The concept of “nuclear power continues to develop safely and efficiently†has gradually become the consensus in the industry. At present, some companies in China have begun to receive orders from nuclear power plant operators. This became the "melting ice" signal for the restart of nuclear power projects.
In recent years, China's wind power, solar energy and other new energy sources have been rapidly developing. In particular, wind power installed capacity has doubled year after year. By the end of 2011, it has reached 45.05 million kilowatts, and the newly added installed capacity of wind power accounts for nearly 20% of all new installed capacity. However, unlike readers' predictions, some experts believe that after the explosive growth of wind power in recent years, its development speed should be reduced, and photovoltaic power generation is in a stage of great development.
Enterprises can accept new emission standards but denitrification price is difficult to offset cost increase
Digital Express: "The 12th Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" and the "Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Thermal Power Plants" have set new standards for the discharge of electric power pollutants. More than half of the readers believe that thermal power companies can accept new standards but exceed Twenty percent of readers believe that the new standard is too harsh. For a coal-fired power plant with a denitrification device installed and operating normally, the country has set a price of 0.8 cents per kilowatt-hour for denitrification, and more than 40% of readers believe that it cannot compensate for the increase in denitrification costs. Nearly 30% of readers believe that the denitrification price should be based on the situation of different companies. And set.
According to the reporter’s observation, according to the newly revised emission standards, the standards for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and soot emissions are higher than those of other countries. Different from readers' predictions, industry experts generally stated that the new standards are too strict and “strict to crazy.†The electric power companies also stated that this standard is difficult to accomplish, and readers think that companies can accept them as strange. For the trial price of denitrification electricity, 0.8 points per kilowatt-hour increase, experts believe that it is not enough to make up for the increase in denitrification costs, which is consistent with the views of many readers.
It is still a long time before the price of residential electricity is properly implemented.
Digital express: The survey results show that 71.16% (1046 votes) of readers believe that the current residents' electricity price is moderate, and 21.43% (votes: 315) of readers believe that the current residents' electricity price is low, and only a small number of readers believe that the current residents' electricity price is biased. high. More than 90% of readers believe that the implementation of the ladder price in most provinces and cities in the country will take place in the last three quarters.
Reporter's observation: Relevant materials show that in recent years, the overall adjustment rate of China's electricity sales price is relatively low. At present, China's industrial electricity prices are at the middle level in the world, and the electricity price of residents is lower than most foreign countries. The industrial electricity price bears some of the cross-subsidies to residents' electricity prices. . Most readers believe that the level of residential electricity prices is moderate and may be related to the low level of average income of domestic residents. As for the implementation of the ladder price, related data show that in 2010, two-thirds of China’s households consumed only one-third of their electricity, and the highest-income 5% of high-income households consumed 24% of their electricity. From this perspective, the implementation of the ladder price is very urgent, but limited to a series of conditions, although the long-awaited ladder price finally settled after more than a year of solicitation of opinions, but when the provinces and cities began to implement this year Unknown number.
The effect of electricity coal price intervention is limited to eliminate indiscriminate charging of circulating links
Digital Express: The survey results show that 84.62% (number of votes: 1244) readers predict that the price of key coal contracts this year will increase by more than 5%, which means that it exceeds the limit set by the National Development and Reform Commission. 64.08% (number of votes: 942) readers predict that the implementation of the coal ceiling price will be discounted. 57.82% (votes: 850) readers predicted that the results of the comprehensive clean-up and consolidation of coal-related funds and fees would cancel some of the unreasonable fees. More than 30% of readers believe that there will be no results.
According to the reporter's observation, the summary of key coal coal contracts in 2012 far exceeds the total amount of 834.6 million tons of inter-provincial coal railway transportation capacity previously announced by the National Development and Reform Commission. This shows that at the same time as the signing of key coal contracts, coal companies have tying certain The amount of general contracts, so that on the surface, the growth of key coal prices did not exceed the upper limit set by the National Development and Reform Commission, but the actual increase was in line with most readers' forecasts. The measures to limit the price of power coal for market trading have been implemented. Because the current price of coal has fallen, it has not touched the "ceiling" of coal prices. The effectiveness of the policy remains to be seen. As regards comprehensively cleaning up and reorganizing coal-related funds and fees, it is a cliché. Each time it is fruitless. This time, the state has intensified its policy implementation and is expected to cancel some unreasonable charges.
Electricity price adjustment is expected to be higher in power reform
Digital Express: The survey results show that 63.95% (votes: 940) of readers believe that the price will be adjusted this year. 35.71% (votes: 525) readers believe that the focus of this year's reform is to focus on rationalizing the coal-electricity contradiction. 28.10% ( votes: 413) of readers believe that the focus of the reform is electricity price reform, and that more than 20% of readers believe that the focus of reform It is to deepen separation between the main and auxiliary.
According to the reporter's observation, in 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission had adjusted the price of electricity three times. The previous two price adjustments did not achieve the goal of solving the difficulties for thermal power companies. At the same time, the third adjustment of electricity prices also introduced comprehensive control measures. The overall operating status of thermal power companies is It turned better, but there are also some thermal power companies, so it is expected to increase the on-grid price.
In respect of power system reform, based on the work plan of the Electricity Regulatory Commission for the promotion of power reform in 2012, on the basis of consolidating the results of the separation of plant and network, this year will establish a pilot operation program for the comprehensive reform of the transmission and distribution system to promote the relevant pilot work. At the same time, with the aim of resolving the contradiction between coal and electricity, we will actively advance the reform of the electricity pricing mechanism and gradually establish a fair and reasonable market price mechanism for the coal and electricity industry chain. Promote the use of electricity to increase the price of high-energy-consuming industries, in order to ease the electricity contradiction during peak hours, and form a mechanism to adjust the industry. The reader’s forecast is basically consistent with the SERC's reform work program.
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